In the latest episode of "The World According to Irina Tsukerman” on KAJ Masterclass LIVE, renowned geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman provided valuable insights on several key international developments, including US Vice President JD Vance's visit to India, Trump's declining approval ratings, the complex US-China tariff situation, and the recent terrorist attack in Kashmir. Here are the key takeaways from this comprehensive geopolitical discussion.
JD Vance's "Successful" India Visit: Building a Strategic Alliance
According to Tsukerman, JD Vance's visit to India was "relatively successful," representing more than just a diplomatic formality. The Trump administration is investing significantly in its relationship with India, viewing it as an "unapologetically sovereign country and a model ally" in Trump's foreign policy vision.
The visit focused on several key areas:
1. Recognition of India's Multipolarity
The US acknowledged India's energy ties to Russia and diplomatic relations with Iran as "legitimate expressions of sovereignty." This represents a shift in US policy, potentially reflecting Trump's own diplomatic pivots.
2. Tech Realignment
Vance advocated for Indian participation in US-led semiconductor and rare earth supply chains, with potential expansion of the CHIPS Act to include India-based manufacturing. This initiative aims to address the US-China tech competition while solving America's skills gap and labor shortages.
3. Cultural Diplomacy
Vance, whose wife is of Indian descent, praised India's Hindu civilizational identity and pushed back against previous US criticisms on religious freedom and democratic backsliding.
4. Behind-the-scenes Discussions
The visit included talks with Indian startups on AI regulation and quantum research, closed-door meetings with RSS and BJP-aligned thinktanks focused on tech nationalism, and discussions about supporting India's bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat.
Practical Outcomes
The visit yielded concrete results, including:
Formation of a Senate India Strategic Caucus to push bipartisan investment in defense and tech collaboration
Acceleration of US-India semiconductor and critical minerals initiatives to counter Chinese supply chain dominance
Establishment of an informal channel for aligning nationalist governance models
The Complex Trade Relationship
Behind Vance's visit lies a complex web of trade negotiations. India has reportedly agreed to slash tariffs on over half of its imports from the US—an unprecedented move reflecting both geopolitical calculation and economic necessity.
Key areas of negotiation include:
Tariff reductions on US agricultural exports
Technology partnerships and co-production rights for defense technology
Digital economy regulations and data localization policies
Visa frameworks for skilled Indian workers needed in US tech sectors
Pharmaceutical regulations and intellectual property enforcement
Tsukerman notes that despite Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, these comprehensive arrangements indicate a broader realignment that could benefit both nations even without a traditional "values-based framework."
Trump's Declining Approval Ratings
Tsukerman attributes Trump's falling approval ratings to chaotic policy implementation, even in areas where his policies remain popular. Immigration enforcement has become inconsistent and seemingly arbitrary, with self-serving exceptions undermining Trump's messaging. The tariffs have "wiped out trillions from the economy," impacting middle-class Americans while creating market volatility.
She particularly criticizes Trump's lack of consistent strategy on China, noting that effective pressure would require "a coalition of allies" rather than isolating the US through tariff wars with potential partners. Without transition plans for businesses or alternative supply chains, these policies have led to "widespread middle-class dissatisfaction" even among Trump voters.
The Kashmir Terrorist Attack: Timing and Implications
The terrorist attack in Kashmir during Vance's visit killed 26 Indian tourists, which Tsukerman describes as "highly structured, highly intelligence-backed, government-backed attack" rather than a simple terrorist incident. She compares its psychological impact to October 7th, disrupting Kashmir's recent normalization.
India has responded with:
Enhanced military readiness and deployment along key sectors
Cutting Pakistani diplomatic staff by 50%
Aggressive counter-narratives on Pakistani terrorist sponsorship
Global information campaigns exposing alleged ISI operations
Tsukerman suggests this attack may represent more than just Pakistan-India tension, potentially involving multiple actors seeking to create "major civilizational confrontation" and sending indirect messages to US allies in the Gulf States during a period of US global retrenchment.
Pope Francis's Legacy and the Future of the Catholic Church
Tsukerman offered a nuanced view of Pope Francis's papacy, noting his populist appeal and accessible style while critiquing his "moral equivalency" on issues like Ukraine and Hamas. She attributes this perspective to his background in "Soviet-backed liberation theology," which she argues co-opted religious principles with communist ideology.
Regarding the selection of the next Pope, Tsukerman cautions against early predictions, noting the highly political nature of the process. While Pope Francis appointed many cardinals who may share his vision, their true allegiances may shift once given the opportunity to shape their own legacy.
This geopolitical analysis highlights the complex interplay of diplomatic relationships, economic interests, and security challenges in today's world. As the US-India relationship deepens amid rising tensions with China and regional security threats, the coming months will likely see further developments in these critical areas.
Watch the interview on YouTube:
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